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RBA Rates Decision Critical for the Aussie Dollar – Market Outlook with Ashley Jessen

Join Ashley Jessen as he details the key market events for the week ahead, covering the S&P500, EuroStoxx50, Aus200, Brent Crude, Gold, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, USDCAD and the critical macro economic data for the week starting 7th of April 2015.


Despite weaker than expected US jobs growth on Friday night, which came in well under expectations, we did see the 9th consecutive quarterly gain on the S&P500 index which is really quite strong. Bullish momentum is still pushing to the upside there.

However, the Eurostoxx50 really took the top of the charts gaining some 17% of the last quarter which is the best quarterly gain in 6 years.

If we have a look at Aussie 200 index, we are finding plenty of support down the current levels. When we have a look over the top 50 ASX stocks, we did see some 80% of them actually hitting higher or equal lows and which is pushing some momentum to the upside there. So we would not be surprised if plenty of support is found at current levels and in fact, we do breakout to the upside over the short term.

Now across to commodities, and we are seeing the US Oil Rig count which is really interesting. It has nearly halved over the last 6 months. Now it is a little too early to see how that is playing out in regards to the Crude oil price. So we will be keeping a close eye on that going forward.

Now Gold has found plenty of support down at the current low levels. It did pushed up above 1200 and on that weaker than expected economic data coming out of the US which is pushing towards the Fed, pushing out their rate rise, Gold did in fact popped up and it hit a new higher high.

Across to the Currencies and all eyes will be on the Aussie Dollar (AUD/USD) this week. We have got the RBA rates announcement at 2:30pm today. Now it is sitting on support around the 0.7600 or just below 0.7600, so it is a double bottom that is in such a long term downtrend.

We need to be mindful of a potential break to the downside or it could find support if rates do remain on hold but it is about a 50-50 at this point with analysts quite divided.

Now the AUD/NZD is quite interesting. If you do a search for one AUD and NZD, you will see that it actually coming out around parity but the actual spot price is a little bit higher than that. So watch for the AUD/NZD to see if it will actually break below that parity level there.

And USD/CAD also quite interesting, it is still in a very click out range. In fact, if you are trading the ranges there you have probably done quite well but we are also looking for a breakout either side as it goes to those extremes.

In economic data this week, we have got the Fed FOMC minutes, meeting minutes coming up so keep an eye on that. That will be on Wednesday.

And in Insights this week, we are actually take a look at top 50 ASX stocks with some analysis run on that. If you would like to get a free copy of that, click on the links below.

And of course we hope you have a great week. Thanks a lot.

Traders involved in the market always need to know what events are unfolding and how that might affect the decisions they make in their portfolio. Therefore it is essential to get a snapshot of what will likely move the market this week.

Irrespective of whether you trade the ASX stocks, Forex, Indices, Commodities or international markets, you’ll get a great perspective on what to expect this week.

These are our initial impressions only, for further details please do not hesitate to get in touch via the details below:

Ashley Jessen
Director of Communications
Phone: 02 8036 7567

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